Prior Government Experience of Rebel Leaders and Civil War Duration

Abstract

Why does conflict termination occur during some rebel leaders’ tenures but not others? Under similar structural and organizational conditions, can rebel leadership help explain this variation? Although recent research has increasingly examined the role of rebel leaders, explanations of civil war duration have more often emphasized conflict-level and organizational conditions. This study builds on the emerging leader-level perspective by examining whether rebel leaders’ prior government experience affects the likelihood of conflict termination during their tenure. It argues that leaders with this experience may have capabilities that shorten conflict. Prior government experience can give future rebel leaders direct familiarity with state institutions and high-level political decision-making. This experience may help them build more effective rebel organizations and better assess opportunities for conflict termination once war begins. The argument is tested with data from the ROLE and UCDP Conflict Termination datasets for the period 1980–2011. Using Cox proportional hazards models, the study analyses the duration of civil war under individual rebel leaders. The results provide strong and consistent evidence that prior government experience significantly increases the likelihood of conflict termination during a leader’s tenure. Additional analyses are consistent with the article’s capability framework, showing that government experience is associated with stronger rebel organizational development and wartime performance. These results underscore the importance of distinguishing among leadership backgrounds and suggest that prior government experience can significantly shape civil war duration.